ABSTRACT
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused millions of deaths and one of the greatest health crises of all time. In this disease, one of the most important aspects is the early detection of the infection to avoid the spread. In addition to this, it is essential to know how the disease progresses in patients, to improve patient care. This contribution presents a novel method based on a hierarchical intelligent system, that analyzes the application of deep learning models to detect and classify patients with COVID-19 using both X-ray and chest computed tomography (CT). The methodology was divided into three phases, the first being the detection of whether or not a patient suffers from COVID-19, the second step being the evaluation of the percentage of infection of this disease and the final phase is to classify the patients according to their severity. Stratification of patients suffering from COVID-19 according to their severity using automatic systems based on machine learning on medical images (especially X-ray and CT of the lungs) provides a powerful tool to help medical experts in decision making. In this article, a new contribution is made to a stratification system with three severity levels (mild, moderate and severe) using a novel histogram database (which defines how the infection is in the different CT slices for a patient suffering from COVID-19). The first two phases use CNN Densenet-161 pre-trained models, and the last uses SVM with LDA supervised learning algorithms as classification models. The initial stage detects the presence of COVID-19 through X-ray multi-class (COVID-19 vs. No-Findings vs. Pneumonia) and the results obtained for accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score values are 88%, 91%, 87%, and 89%, respectively. The following stage manifested the percentage of COVID-19 infection in the slices of the CT-scans for a patient and the results in the metrics evaluation are 0.95 in Pearson Correlation coefficient, 5.14 in MAE and 8.47 in RMSE. The last stage finally classifies a patient in three degrees of severity as a function of global infection of the lungs and the results achieved are 95% accurate.
ABSTRACT
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused millions of deaths and one of the greatest health crises of all time. In this disease, one of the most important aspects is the early detection of the infection to avoid the spread. In addition to this, it is essential to know how the disease progresses in patients, to improve patient care. This contribution presents a novel method based on a hierarchical intelligent system, that analyzes the application of deep learning models to detect and classify patients with COVID-19 using both X-ray and chest computed tomography (CT). The methodology was divided into three phases, the first being the detection of whether or not a patient suffers from COVID-19, the second step being the evaluation of the percentage of infection of this disease and the final phase is to classify the patients according to their severity. Stratification of patients suffering from COVID-19 according to their severity using automatic systems based on machine learning on medical images (especially X-ray and CT of the lungs) provides a powerful tool to help medical experts in decision making. In this article, a new contribution is made to a stratification system with three severity levels (mild, moderate and severe) using a novel histogram database (which defines how the infection is in the different CT slices for a patient suffering from COVID-19). The first two phases use CNN Densenet-161 pre-trained models, and the last uses SVM with LDA supervised learning algorithms as classification models. The initial stage detects the presence of COVID-19 through X-ray multi-class (COVID-19 vs. No-Findings vs. Pneumonia) and the results obtained for accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score values are 88%, 91%, 87%, and 89%, respectively. The following stage manifested the percentage of COVID-19 infection in the slices of the CT-scans for a patient and the results in the metrics evaluation are 0.95 in Pearson Correlation coefficient, 5.14 in MAE and 8.47 in RMSE. The last stage finally classifies a patient in three degrees of severity as a function of global infection of the lungs and the results achieved are 95% accurate.
ABSTRACT
Estimation of COVID-19 dynamics and its evolution is a multidisciplinary effort, which requires the unification of heterogeneous disciplines (scientific, mathematics, epidemiological, biological/bio-chemical, virologists and health disciplines to mention the most relevant) to work together towards a better understanding of this pandemic. Time series analysis is of great importance to determine both the similarity in the behavior of COVID-19 in certain countries/states and the establishment of models that can analyze and predict the transmission process of this infectious disease. In this contribution, an analysis of the different states of the United States will be carried out to measure the similarity of COVID-19 time series, using dynamic time warping distance (DTW) as a distance metric. A parametric methodology is proposed to jointly analyze infected and deceased persons. This metric allows comparison of time series that have a different time length, making it very appropriate for studying the United States, since the virus did not spread simultaneously in all the states/provinces. After a measure of the similarity between the time series of the states of United States was determined, a hierarchical cluster was created, which makes it possible to analyze the behavioral relationships of the pandemic between different states and to discover interesting patterns and correlations in the underlying data of COVID-19 in the United States. With the proposed methodology, nine different clusters were obtained, showing a different behavior in the eastern zone and western zone of the United States. Finally, to make a prediction of the evolution of COVID-19 in the states, Logistic, Gompertz and SIR models were computed. With these mathematical models, it is possible to have a more precise knowledge of the evolution and forecast of the pandemic.